Across law enforcement, fire, EMS, corrections, and 911 communications, the workforce is older than many leaders realize, and a huge share of your people will be eligible to leave in the next 5–10 years. Combine that with high burnout and a thin pipeline of new recruits, and you’re looking at a structural staffing problem, not just a temporary hiring issue.
Below is a data-driven look at what’s coming, by discipline, and what agency leaders can do now to prepare.
1. The demographic squeeze: why this wave is different
At the macro level, roughly 4 million Americans will turn 65 every year for the next several years, reflecting the peak of the Baby Boomer cohort hitting traditional retirement age. ABC7 New York Public safety has an added twist: careers often start young and end early because of hazard and physical demands.
International labor guidelines note that public emergency services workers (police, fire, EMS, etc.) tend to retire earlier than other workers due to hazardous conditions and strain. HLH In the U.S., many public-safety retirement systems allow full pensions with 20–25 years of service, sometimes with mandatory retirement in the 50s. Congress.gov+1
Put simply:
Big cohort nearing eligibility
Early retirement rules
Rising burnout post-2020
= A lot of experienced people leaving at once.
A recent analysis of U.S. law enforcement and fire service trends found that about 18% of sworn personnel in some agencies are already retirement-eligible, rising to roughly 24% by the mid-2020s, while volunteer firefighter numbers have fallen ~25% since the 1980s. RespondCapture
2. Law enforcement: older force, long tenures, huge replacement demand
Age profile
The average age of male police officers in the U.S. workforce is about 40.4, and female officers average 38.7. Data USA
Many officers enter the profession in their early- to mid-20s. PMC+1
Time served & retirement
A classic study of police retirements found that officers retired at an average age of 55 after about 26.4 years of service. Office of Justice Programs Federal law enforcement retirement rules still reflect that model: many federal officers can retire at 50 with 20 years of service, and there’s often mandatory retirement at 57. Congress.gov+1
Openings driven by retirement
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects about 62,200 openings for police and detectives each year from 2024–2034, with many of those openings coming from retirements and transfers rather than growth. Bureau of Labor Statistics
We’re already seeing this in real time:
A national survey by the Police Executive Research Forum found a 45% increase in police retirements in 2020–21 compared with the year prior. Police Forum
Large departments like NYPD report steep drops in experienced detectives and hundreds of retirements per year, with thousands more becoming eligible in the next 1–2 years. New York Post+1
Implication for agencies:
Your average officer is already in their late 30s or early 40s, with a significant chunk in the 50+ band and eligible to leave when pension math makes sense. The next decade is about replacing experience, not just headcount.
3. Fire service: aging crews and early exit norms
Age profile
DataUSA estimates the average age of male firefighters at 38.5 and female firefighters at 35.7. Data USA NFPA data referenced by fire service publications show:
About 50% of firefighters are between 30 and 49
17% are 50–59
10% are 60+ FireRescue1
That means more than a quarter of the fire service is already 50 or older.
Retirement & time served
One analysis of U.S. fire service demographics cites an average firefighter retirement age of about 57. Pocket Prep
Many employers require or strongly encourage retirement as early as age 50 because of the physical toll of the job. IAFF
If you assume typical hiring in the mid-20s, that implies a 25–30 year career arc for many career firefighters. Volunteer firefighters, who form the backbone of fire protection in much of the U.S., are disappearing in large numbers—one national estimate shows a roughly 25% decline in volunteer firefighters since the mid-1980s. RespondCapture+1
Implication for agencies:
You have a big bulge of mid-career and late-career firefighters who will hit retirement eligibility in tight clusters. At the same time, your volunteer bench is shrinking, so you can’t rely on “free” staffing to backfill.
4. EMS: younger on paper, but high churn and replacement needs
EMS looks younger than police or fire, but that can be deceiving—much of the workforce churns out long before retirement age.
Age profile
The average age of male EMTs/paramedics is roughly 35.5 years, and females about 35.1 years, according to DataUSA. Data USA
Another study found EMTs averaged about 34 years while paramedics averaged 37 years. PMC
Tenure and exit patterns
A 2024 study of EMS retention found that EMTs who were likely to leave had a median of 3 years with their main EMS employer; paramedics who left had a median of 4 years. Taylor & Francis Online This suggests EMS loses a lot of people long before traditional retirement eligibility.
BLS projects:
- About 19,000 openings for EMTs and paramedics each year from 2024–2034, and notes that many of these openings are driven by workers transferring to other occupations or exiting the labor force (retirement, disability, burnout, etc.). Bureau of Labor Statistics
Implication for agencies:
The EMS “retirement wave” is less about age and more about sustainability: long-tenured medics are aging, while younger clinicians cycle out quickly. You will be replacing entire career’s worth of experience with 3–5 year tenures unless you deliberately change the model.
5. Corrections: older workforce, harsh conditions, early mortality
Corrections often gets left out of “first responder” discussions, but it’s a critical component of public safety—and is facing its own retirement and wellness crisis.
Age profile & career arc
DataUSA pegs the average age of both male and female correctional officers and jailers at about 40.1 years. Data USA
Federal correctional officers working in prisons can retire at age 50 with 20 years of service, or at any age with 25 years under special law enforcement retirement provisions. Bureau of Prisons
Shorter life expectancy and stress
Research summarized by the Vera Institute and a 2024 study from SIU note a stark statistic: correctional officers’ average life expectancy is around 59 years, far below the general population, and they experience significantly higher rates of PTSD and suicide. Vera Institute of Justice+1
That reality incentivizes officers to retire as soon as they hit eligibility. Meanwhile, BLS projects about 31,900 openings per year for correctional officers and bailiffs, driven almost entirely by the need to replace people who leave or retire, even as total employment shrinks. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Implication for agencies:
Corrections is staring at a double cliff: early exits plus dangerous workloads for those who remain, which accelerates burnout and pushes even mid-career officers to consider leaving as soon as they can.
6. 911 & public safety communications: vacancy wave & mid-career age
Public safety telecommunicators (dispatchers) are the nerve center of the system, and they’re also under strain.
BLS data show public safety telecommunicators have an average age around 37.8 years. Bureau of Labor Statistics
A national 911 staffing survey found an average vacancy rate of about 25% in 911 centers between 2019 and 2022—meaning one in four positions unfilled on any given day. 911.gov
That vacancy rate is not just turnover; it reflects a mix of retirements, burnout, and the struggle to attract younger workers to a high-stress, low-visibility role.
7. What all this adds up to
If you zoom out across public safety:
Police & detectives: ~62,000 openings per year, many from retirement. Bureau of Labor Statistics
EMTs & paramedics: ~19,000 openings per year, many from replacement rather than growth. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Correctional officers & bailiffs: ~31,900 openings per year, nearly all replacement. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fire & 911: significant vacancy rates and a large over-50 cohort in fire; 25% vacancies in 911 centers. FireRescue1+1
This is the retirement wave in numbers: tens of thousands of experienced public-safety professionals leaving every year, while the pipeline of ready replacements is nowhere near as big or as seasoned.
How first responder agencies can prepare (instead of react)
Here are practical steps agencies should take now.
1. Build a real workforce forecast
Map your people by age, years of service, and retirement eligibility.
Model “if/then” scenarios: If 50% of eligible staff retire within 3 years, what happens to patrol, investigations, fire suppression, EMS coverage, jail staffing, 911 answer times?
Use these models to set hiring targets and academy class sizes, not the other way around.
2. Treat experience as a critical asset, not just headcount
Identify your most experienced officers, firefighters, medics, COs, and dispatchers—especially those with 20+ years of service.
Create formal knowledge-transfer roles: FTOs, mentors, trainers, and part-time retirees who document procedures, local tricks of the trade, and tacit knowledge.
Stand up “pre-retirement” programs that encourage people to stay 2–3 more years in exchange for flexible schedules, training roles, or partial duty shifts.
3. Build a leadership bench before your sergeants and captains walk out
The retirement wave is not just line staff—many sergeants, lieutenants, captains, and division chiefs are in the same age band.
Launch or expand succession-planning and leadership development programs specifically for mid-career staff (8–15 years in).
Pair aspiring leaders with retiring command staff for structured shadowing and project work.
Give future leaders real responsibility now—task forces, process-improvement projects, recruitment initiatives—so they’re ready to step in.
4. Redesign recruitment and onboarding with the wave in mind
If a quarter of your workforce can walk in 5 years, you can’t recruit like it’s 2005.
Broaden your reach: veterans, lateral hires, older career-changers, and nontraditional candidates.
Make the application and screening process simple and mobile-friendly, and connect it to an applicant-tracking system so you can track candidates across long hiring pipelines and communicate with them consistently. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1
Invest in automated yet personalized communication (email, text, portal) so you don’t lose qualified candidates during months-long hiring processes.
5. Make retention a strategic priority
You can’t hire your way out of a retirement wave if you’re still leaking people mid-career.
Address fatigue, forced overtime, and mental health head-on—especially in corrections, EMS, and 911, where life expectancy and burnout data are brutal. news.siu.edu+1
Offer clear advancement pathways so younger staff see a future in your agency, not just a stepping-stone job.
Tie incentives, recognition, and flexible scheduling to longevity and critical roles (investigations, training, specialized units).
5b (bonus). Partner regionally
No agency will solve this alone.
Develop regional academies, joint recruitment campaigns, or shared 911 centers and EMS systems where it makes sense.
Explore mutual aid agreements that include not just operations but also shared training and leadership development, so you’re not all trying to reinvent the wheel with a shrinking talent pool.
The bottom line
The impending wave of retirements in first responder agencies isn’t just about losing bodies; it’s about losing decades of institutional memory in a very short window.
The data are clear:
Your average public-safety worker is late-30s to early-40s.
Many can retire in their 50s after 20–25 years of service.
Replacement demand—driven by retirement, burnout, and transfers—already accounts for tens of thousands of openings every year across police, fire, EMS, corrections, and 911.
Agencies that treat this as a slow-moving crisis and plan accordingly—through workforce modeling, succession planning, modern recruiting infrastructure, and aggressive retention efforts—will emerge with stable staffing and strong culture.
Agencies that don’t will find themselves in a perpetual emergency, fighting fires (sometimes literally) with fewer and fewer seasoned people on the front line.
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